The world is facing a crisis of unprecedented proportions, with the rules-based system established after World War II crumbling at an alarming rate. This has led to a rise in violence and conflict, with the highest number of battle-related deaths recorded in years. But amidst this chaos, there is a glimmer of hope. David Harland, director of the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, offers a sobering yet hopeful perspective on the new realities of stopping wars. He begins his speech with a disclaimer, acknowledging the grim nature of the topic, but also providing a moment of levity with a humorous reference to breakfast. Harland highlights the growing disregard for international norms and taboos, which have historically kept the risk of armed conflict at manageable levels. This is particularly evident in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as Trump's threats against Canada and Greenland, and China's military posturing towards Taiwan. Harland's message is a stark reminder of the structural decline of diplomacy and the rise of populism, which has led to a breakdown in communication and compromise. The world's growing roster of populist leaders is more interested in throwing their copy of the United Nations Charter out the window, rather than finding common ground. However, Harland remains hopeful of solutions that diplomacy can bring, even if the profession is suffering its own bout of structural decline. He points to the Black Sea grain deal, in which the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue played a discreet but instrumental role, as an example of how new forms of diplomacy can still bring about positive outcomes. The deal, brokered by the UN and Turkey, with the support of the African Union and private sector players, allowed for the export of over 33 million metric tonnes of food from Ukrainian ports in the year the agreement was in place. Harland emphasizes the growing role of the private sector in conflict resolution, and the importance of faith-based groups like the Roman Catholic Community of Saint Egidio, which has been instrumental in peacemaking activities in Central America and Mozambique. Despite the challenges, Harland remains optimistic about the potential for diplomacy to bring about peace, even in the face of rising violence and impunity. He highlights the importance of identifying areas of mutual interest and working towards short-term solutions, rather than focusing on the underlying causes of conflict. In conclusion, Harland offers a balanced perspective on the new realities of stopping wars, emphasizing the importance of diplomacy and compromise, while also acknowledging the challenges and obstacles that lie ahead.
